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I am bound to close this first Conference of a cycle that we have designated as Routes to the Future.

I made it a point to attend all the addresses and discussions that took place today.

I was able to record signs of concern but, at the same time, some messages of hope.

Decline in fertility is not inevitable, but it must be accepted that, in all probability, we will have to get used to levels that are not related to restoring generations.

As shown in the work of Prof. Livi Bacci, fertility in pre-modern Portugal was very high, notwithstanding the identified regional differences.

The deep changes that have been witnessed in the last decades are visible in life styles, in family structures, in the system of social values itself, which guides behaviours and creates very different expectations than those the older generations were used to.

The role in the organization of the labour market and in the economic conditions of income distribution has been highlighted by several of the participants.

The Portuguese case was very well identified and allows us to understand the impact of a relatively swift change upon a generation that kept, until a very short while ago, several features of the traditional demographic regimes.

Corresponding to the aims that this Conference had purported to achieve, several issues were identified for onward research.

The comparative approach of the Portuguese case with that of other European countries leaves us relevant tracks and opportunities for study and reflection during the next few years.

Portuguese scientific production on this issue is recommended, but it would be useful that young researchers, some of whom are with us here today, should accept the responsibility to proceed with and develop this line of scientific reflection.

I am certain that the valuable contributions of this Conference will encourage the younger to accept this challenge.

Lastly, I wish to emphasize the happy opportunity to have Prof. Massimo Livi Bacci with us today.

It is a great honour for me and, I expect, for us all, that Professor Livi Bacci accepted this invitation and share with us his wide experience and his deep knowledge of European and Worldwide demographic problems.

In 1971, Professor Livi Bacci published, in Princeton University, one of the pioneering studies over fertility n Portugal. A Century of Portuguese Fertility was extremely meaningful for a new generation of social and demographic scientists that made themselves known in Portugal following the establishment of the democratic regime.

It became a work of reference and encouraged many young researchers, at the time, to reflect upon the processes of social change in a country that, until then, had kept to traditional structures, even if simultaneously existing with isolated regions of modernism.

Professor Massimo Livi Bacci, Portugal and its scientific community shall not forget your interest in our country and the analytical contribute you have brought us.

It happens, in addition, that since then, you have always welcomed with great sympathy and dedication the many requests for help and counselling that have been put forward by young Portuguese researchers.

Meanwhile, your career in research has represented an inestimable advance in the history of European population.

The way you have been able to place the issues of demographic transition, in Europe’s diversified areas and on a long term basis, opens extremely enriching perspectives for the development of demographic studies in particular and, generally, for a reflection over the identity and future of Europe.

In recognition of your work, and also of your career as a scientist, as a citizen and, more recently, as a Statesman, I have decided to award you with the insignia of Grand Officer of the Order of Prince Henry the Navigator.